Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 14.027945 16.344047 18.864525 21.803555 25.128574 28.765514 33.036341
2024-12-22 9.866973 12.889605 16.501519 21.101009 26.764107 33.468284 41.960964
2024-12-29 7.888478 11.357844 15.841136 21.975355 30.053657 40.222550 53.867998
2025-01-05 6.351752 9.976900 14.996389 22.303416 32.489149 45.980318 64.954110
2025-01-12 5.158193 8.778251 14.115330 22.326085 34.355645 51.002952 75.367802
2025-01-19 4.269137 7.827272 13.384231 22.370377 36.130859 55.918452 85.895406
2025-01-26 3.908733 7.629396 13.725143 23.993147 40.287528 64.447006 102.057066
2025-02-02 3.497389 7.258316 13.712933 25.018528 43.575017 71.887939 117.091312
2025-02-09 3.139720 6.909790 13.671065 25.954415 46.754574 79.334344 132.557554
2025-02-16 2.698899 6.317683 13.111762 25.927142 48.327666 84.353840 144.573364
2025-02-23 2.248726 5.615508 12.243837 25.236635 48.688320 87.418044 153.652149
2025-03-02 1.846678 4.928669 11.296585 24.270211 48.445789 89.425492 161.087413
2025-03-09 1.603818 4.554643 10.929541 24.382593 50.182736 94.947446 174.793063
2025-03-16 1.353007 4.107664 10.347767 24.012327 51.013218 99.000584 186.346964
2025-03-23 1.254409 4.015903 10.509250 25.143222 54.733407 108.297910 207.309733
2025-03-30 1.117761 3.792862 10.343085 25.568678 57.120214 115.357079 224.766449
2025-04-06 0.975827 3.520402 10.019483 25.615071 58.753742 121.138678 240.274703
2025-04-13 0.854216 3.275111 9.720133 25.672569 60.398681 127.018450 256.239784
2025-04-20 0.834984 3.337208 10.188256 27.501481 65.800926 140.200044 286.000318
2025-04-27 0.783584 3.285207 10.357524 28.655434 69.873030 151.070426 312.028425
2025-05-04 0.731683 3.219037 10.479565 29.707441 73.798997 161.857953 338.381475
2025-05-11 0.643417 3.003540 10.166377 29.676958 75.383313 168.172924 356.666925
2025-05-18 0.541810 2.707877 9.579857 28.901177 75.258209 171.094115 368.655890